Peregraf
The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) has intensified its efforts to postpone the parliamentary elections currently scheduled for June 10 by putting pressure on Kurdistan Region President Barzani. However, they also must secure buy-in from Kurdish rivals and the authorities in Baghdad to be successful.
The party announced last month that it plans to boycott the election. It is upset with what it sees as interference into the process by the Federal Supreme Court in Baghdad. It believes that this will benefit its main challenger, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). Since Nechirvan Barzani set the date for the election, the plan is to get him to intervene and change it.
On February 21, the Federal Supreme Court ruled on a lawsuit brought by the PUK about the Kurdistan Region’s electoral law. This eliminated the eleven reserved minority seats and broke up the Region into four constituencies.
The next day, the KDP’s Political Bureau held a meeting chaired by Masoud Barzani. It declared that the court’s decision was "contrary to the spirit of the constitution, the constitutional rights of the Kurdistan Region, federal principles, and the principle of separation of powers enshrined in the Iraqi constitution." However, the statement gave no indication that it would boycott the election.
With the lawsuit resolved, Nechirvan Barzani set a June 10 election date under his authority as Kurdistan Region president and in coordination with the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC).
More than two weeks later, the KDP announced on march 18 that it would boycott the polls.
It raises an important question: Did Nechirvan Barzani set the election date without the approval or knowledge of the KDP leadership?
A senior KDP source told Peregraf that "there was no coordination between Nechirvan Barzani and the headquarters of the KDP or the Political Bureau to determine the date."
"Masoud Barzani is worried and angry and told Nechirvan Barzani to postpone the election date using the same authority as he announced it," the source added. However, there is no clear legal procedure that authorizes the president to postpone the election.
"The commission can reject his request by referring to the Federal Supreme Court's decision that elections must be held."
To meet his party’s demand, Nechirvan Barzani must first convince the PUK to agree to delay the polls and then must do the same with the Shia Coordination Framework in Baghdad, which controls the government, the court, and IHEC. Iran may also have a say.
All of these actors have explicitly or implicitly indicated that they want elections to go ahead. Moreover, the international community — especially the United States, the United Nations, and the European countries — has consistently emphasized the importance of holding elections.
"Some Shia parties are being very tough on the KDP and insist that the elections must be held on the designated day. If the KDP does not allow the ballot boxes to be placed in [Erbil and Duhok], the federal government and judiciary will take tough steps. The international community is also very much on the KDP. However, other Shia parties are not in favor of putting pressure on the KDP," the source explained.
Controversy over the election is also part of the persistent problems within the KDP, in particular between Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) Prime Minister Masrour Barzani and Nechirvan Barzani. The rivalry two senior party figures, who are first cousins, escalated following the 2018 election, when the former became prime minister and gradually began to sideline the latter.
This period also coincided with deteriorating relations between the KDP and the PUK. The two parties had a working relationship when Nechirvan Barzani was prime minister, but it became fraught under Masrour Barzani’s leadership. In fact, PUK ministers refused to attend cabinet meetings for six months amid tensions between them.
The source speculated that preserving good relations between Nechirvan Barzani and the PUK and Iran would be worth an election postponement.
"If the situation breaks down to the detriment of the KDP, then Nechirvan Barzani will say that he offered them a strong party that had half of the seats in parliament, but it has weakened in the hands of Masrour Barzani," the source said.
Top KDP leader Masoud Barzani met with European Union Ambassador to Iraq Thomas Siller on April 17 and called for the postponement.
"It is impossible to hold a clean election on the date set for the election," Masoud Barzani said. "Postponing the elections for several months is more important than holding an election in which the rights of voters and communities have been violated."
According to a statement released by his office, Masoud Barzani also thanked the international community and the United Nations for taking the KDP’s comments seriously, citing remarks by Siller during the meeting.
On the same day, Nechirvan Barzani indirectly called for the postponement of the elections during a speech at the Sulaimani Forum.
"The Kurdish people are united and the parties must agree for the interests of the country, so that we can hold a clear and fair election with the consent and participation of all," he said.
The KDP missed the necessary deadline to submit a list of candidates, despite three extensions by IHEC. If there is an agreement to postpone the June 10 date, the commission will have to restart all of the procedures that are currently underway.
"The situation is moving towards a short postponement of the elections. Some of the demands of the KDP will be implemented and five reserved seats may be returned to the Christian community because they also have reserved seats in [the federal parliament]. Then, the technical problems should be resolved and the door should be reopened for the submission of lists and candidates," the senior KDP source argued.
The KDP’s demands include that the Kurdistan Region’s judiciary should be responsible for resolving electoral disputes instead of the federal courts, the reinstatement of the reserved minority seats, increasing the number of seats for Halabja, and resolving technical issues related to the problems reading voters’ fingerprints. Unless these are met, the party plans to boycott the elections.
Due to the Federal Supreme Court’s decision that declared that the reserved seats were unconstitutional, the Kurdistan Region’s minority communities will have to contest the election without special consideration.
The seats were controversial. Critics argued that the eleven seats were de facto held by the KDP and did not reflect the authentic interests of the minority communities. The KDP and the PUK were unable to reach an agreement on how to reform the reserved seat system, providing the Federal Supreme Court with an opportunity to intervene and eliminate the seats entirely.
The Kurdistan Region will be broken into four constituencies for the election, instead of one large one. There will be 38 seats in Sulaimani, 34 seats in Erbil, 25 seats in Duhok and three seats in Halabja, for a total of 100 seats.
"It is within the power of the president to determine the date of the elections. In this situation, he can postpone it in coordination with the commission and set a new date for the elections," said Dana Dara, a lawyer and legal advisor told Peregraf. However, the situation is a "strange phenomenon" because there is no clear legal text that provides precedent for next steps.
Dara described the KDP’s absence from the elections as a "disruptive boycott, not a boycott of taking a stand."
"In a place like Kurdistan, which has neither a country nor a constitution, when the influential parties do not participate in the elections the process reveals itself for what it is," he said.
The lawyer said he expects a negotiated resolution to the situation that will include a postponement.
"Through one or more entities, they will submit a request to the commission to postpone the elections and change the schedule," Dara said. "This is the most likely way to achieve a postponement of the Kurdistan parliamentary elections."
However, any delay is complicated by the expiration of IHEC’s mandate in early July. It will need to be extended by the parliament in Baghdad.
The election was originally scheduled for October 1, 2022, but has already been postponed three times. Since 1992, no elections for the Kurdistan Parliament have been held on time.