Peregraf
Although the Kurdistan parliamentary elections on October 20, 2024 did not alter the rankings of the top two parties, the KDP and PUK—the two ruling parties—they successfully reaffirmed their political legitimacy through the people's vote. However, there are notable changes and other important consequences that have emerged from this election.
Peregraf examines the overall context and the circumstances surrounding each political party based on the initial outcomes of the sixth Kurdistan parliamentary elections. Some parties, which garnered a limited number of votes and seats, have disputed the results, alleging "fraud." Additionally, The article examines each party's performance, comparing current votes and positions to the previous term in Kurdistan parliament.
Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP)
KDP emerged as the leading party in Kurdistan following the recent elections, increasing its overall vote count while seeing a reduction in its parliamentary seats. Notably, the loss of seats is not due to the party's own performance but is attributed to changes in the electoral law and the redistribution of community seats.
In the last term of the Kurdistan Region Parliament, the KDP obtained 45 seats with a total of 686,070 votes. Preliminary results indicate that the KDP is projected to secure 39 seats, even though its vote tally has risen to 809,199.
In the previous parliament, there were 111 seats in total, with 11 of them reserved for minority communities, many of which had historically supported the KDP, resulting in the party holding 56 seats in the assembly. However, with the electoral law changes, the total number of seats has been reduced to 100, with only five now reserved for community representation. Of those, the KDP is expected to retain only three seats from Erbil and Duhok. This leaves the KDP with a projected 42 seats in the new parliament, falling nine seats short of a majority needed to form a government.
Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK)
The election results also saw growth for the PUK. The party, under the leadership of Bafel Talabani following the split from Lahur Sheikh Jangi, increased both its votes and seats compared to the previous election. The PUK gained 408,141 votes, up from 319,912 in 2018, and increased its seats from 21 to 23.
A significant victory for the PUK was the lack of electoral success for the People's Front, the faction led by Lahur Sheikh Jangi. This outcome reinforced the party’s long-standing claim that leaders gain influence only as part of the PUK, and struggle without the backing of the party.
The New Generation Movement (NGM)
The New Generation Movement emerged as a significant force in the recent elections, solidifying its position as the leading opposition party and the third-largest in the Kurdistan Parliament. In 2018, the NGM won 127,115 votes, securing eight seats and ranking as the fourth-largest party in parliament. However, in this election, the NGM nearly doubled its support, gaining 290,991 votes and 15 seats, placing it third in the parliamentary rankings.
The Kurdistan Islamic Union (KIU) also known as (Yakgrtu)
The KIU also made substantial gains, rising to become the fourth-largest party in the Kurdistan Parliament, a notable improvement from its sixth-place ranking in the previous session. In 2018, the Yakgrtu participated in the election as part of an alliance with the Islamic Movement, securing 79,434 votes and five seats collectively. This time, the KIU ran independently, winning 116,941 votes and securing seven seats in parliament.
The National Stance Movement and the People's Front: Two Election Heartbreaks
The National Stance Movement, led by Ali Hama Saleh, and the People's Front, led by Lahur Sheikh Jangi, were two new parties entering the political landscape with high expectations. Both aimed to capitalize on the frustration of protesters and previous election boycotters, hoping to attract the votes of dissatisfied citizens, including those who had supported opposition groups like the NGM.
Despite a high voter turnout of 72%, with many former boycotters heading to the polls, neither the National Stance Movement nor the People's Front lived up to their expectations. The two parties combined could not even match half of the New Generation Movement's votes. The National Stance Movement secured 55,775 votes, resulting in four seats, while the People's Front gained 33,365 votes, earning just two seats.
Gorran and the Kurdistan Justice Group (Komal): The Two Biggest Losers
The Gorran Movement suffered the most significant loss in this election, followed closely by the Kurdistan Justice Group (Komal).
Since the death of Gorran's founder, Nawshirwan Mustafa, in 2017, the movement has experienced internal instability, with frequent splits and infighting. Even just days before the election, another internal rift occurred, with a faction led by Dana Ahmad Majid breaking away from the leadership of Omar Sayed Ali. These divisions greatly impacted Gorran’s performance at the polls. In the previous parliamentary session, Gorran was the third-largest party, securing 186,903 votes and 12 seats. This time, however, the movement received less than 12,000 votes, the lowest in its history, and will have only one seat in parliament.
Gorran’s downfall can be traced back to its peak during the lifetime of Nawshirwan Mustafa, when it received nearly half a million votes in the 2009 and 2013 Iraqi and Kurdistan elections, challenging the dominance of the PUK and KDP. In 2009, Gorran's rise shocked the political establishment, winning 25 seats in the Kurdistan Parliament. However, after joining the government following the 2013 elections, where it won 24 seats, the movement began to weaken. In the 2018 elections, following Mustafa’s death, Gorran lost half of its support. In the 2021 Iraqi parliamentary elections, it garnered only 20,000 votes across the Kurdistan region and failed to win any seats. The downward trend has continued into this election.
Similarly, the Kurdistan Justice Group (Komal), previously known as the Kurdistan Islamic Group, did not fare well in the election. Even after removing the "Islamic" suffix from its name in an effort to rebrand, it saw a steep decline in support. Komal has been criticized for being dominated by a few families close to its leader, Ali Bapir, with these individuals consistently securing parliamentary seats and high government positions. In the 2018 elections, Komal won seven seats with 109,494 votes. This time, however, it managed only 64,710 votes, resulting in just three seats.