Peregraf
The Kurdistan Region stands at a critical juncture as it prepares to form its next government following parliamentary elections. While the results reveal the enduring dominance of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), they also highlight a deeply entrenched rivalry that poses questions about the sustainability of their coalition governance.
The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) has reiterated its stance that the new Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) should be led by Prime Minister Masrour Barzani. The party's delegation is scheduled to commence formal negotiations for forming the tenth cabinet today, November 27, 2024, in Sulaymaniyah.
The KDP and PUK each maintain their own illegitimate armed forces and economic systems, giving them control over distinct geographical areas—Erbil and Duhok for the KDP, and Sulaymaniyah and Halabja for the PUK. This division of power and geography makes it impossible to form a government without the involvement of both parties, regardless of their parliamentary positions or seat numbers.
Election Results: A Snapshot
The KDP emerged as the largest party, securing 39 seats, while the PUK trailed with 23. Smaller parties—such as the New Generation Movement (NGM) with 15 seats, the Kurdistan Islamic Union (KIU) with 7, and others—collectively hold the remaining 38 seats. Minority seats for the Christian and Turkmen communities are largely divided, with three aligned to the KDP and two to the PUK.
A simple majority of 51 seats is required to form a government, leaving the KDP, as the leading party, with the challenge of building a coalition in a fragmented and divided parliament.
Seven political parties in Kurdistan, excluding the New Generation Movement (MGM), have rejected the recent parliamentary election results, alleging widespread fraud. They demand re-elections and reforms to the electronic voting system. Meanwhile, the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) denies the allegations, stating no irregularities occurred during vote counting.
The Coalition Conundrum
Despite their rivalry, the most viable scenario for government formation remains a coalition between the KDP and the PUK. Together, they control 67 seats, with the KDP’s 39 (plus three minority seats) and the PUK’s 23 (plus two minority seats). Neither party can realistically form a government alone, as smaller parties have declared opposition or abstention.
Scenarios for Government Formation
Scenario 1: KDP-PUK Coalition
A coalition between the KDP and PUK offers the most stability, continuing a decades-long power-sharing arrangement. However, this scenario is fraught with tension:
• Power Struggles: The PUK is likely to demand a greater share of key ministries—such as Interior, Peshmerga, and Finance—challenging the KDP’s stronger electoral position.
• Trust Deficit: Years of mistrust, exacerbated by the KDP’s electoral dominance, could complicate negotiations and strain cooperation.
• Regional Unity: Analysts warn that the KDP must tread carefully to maintain the PUK’s partnership, as their support is critical for both parliamentary arithmetic and regional cohesion.
Scenario 2: KDP-Small Parties Coalition
Theoretically, the KDP could seek alliances with smaller parties, but this option presents significant challenges:
• NGM’s Demands: The New Generation Movement has set high demands, such as the prime ministership or control of ministries, making collaboration unlikely.
• Opposition Stance: Other smaller parties, including the KIU, National Stance, Komal, and Gorran, have declared intentions to remain in opposition or boycott parliamentary sessions.
• Minority Representation: While the KDP holds the allegiance of three minority seats, this support is insufficient to form a majority.
Without the PUK, a KDP-led coalition would lack stability and face governance challenges due to its fragmented nature.
The Road Ahead
The political landscape in the Kurdistan Region remains precarious, with the KDP-PUK coalition as the only realistic path to government formation. Yet, their recent electoral rivalry and strained relations threaten to delay negotiations, risking a prolonged political deadlock.
Failure to reconcile these differences could deepen divisions in a region already grappling with economic instability, governance challenges, and external pressures. As negotiations unfold, the focus will be on the leadership of both parties to navigate this delicate balancing act.
The stability of the Kurdistan Region—and its ability to address pressing challenges—depends on the outcome of these critical talks. For now, the political future remains uncertain, with all eyes on the KDP and PUK to determine the next chapter.