Drone Strikes Escalate in the Kurdistan: Baghdad’s Failure or Calculated Negligence?

Peregraf

The Kurdistan Region has been rocked by a relentless wave of drone attacks over the past two weeks, targeting oil infrastructure, security installations, and civilian areas, causing widespread concern over security breakdowns under the government of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani.

Since June 30, at least eleven drone-related incidents have been reported in the Kurdistan Region. These include confirmed strikes and drone shoot-downs across Erbil, Sulaymaniyah, Duhok, and Zakho. Targets have included vital oil and gas fields, military installations, and even civilian refugee camps, threatening both the economy and the lives of citizens.

The most significant attacks occurred within 48 hours on July 14 and 15. On Monday evening, July 14, two drones struck the Khurmala oil field in Erbil province, damaging infrastructure but causing no casualties. Just hours later, at 7:00 am on July 15, another drone bomber attacked the Sarsang oil field in Duhok, leading to a major explosion and halting production. HKN Energy, the company operating the field, confirmed the blast and the temporary suspension of operations.

The Ministry of Natural Resources of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) strongly condemned both incidents, labeling them "terrorist attacks" on the region’s economic infrastructure. "We urge immediate protection of strategic assets," the ministry said in a statement, calling on Baghdad to act.

The United States Consulate General in Erbil issued a strong condemnation of the escalating drone attacks targeting Kurdistan’s vital infrastructure. In a statement, the consulate specifically referenced the July 14 and 15 strikes on the Khurmala and Sarsang oil fields, describing them as assaults on "critical infrastructure" in the Iraqi Kurdistan Region. The U.S. emphasized that the Government of Iraq must assert its authority and prevent armed groups from launching such attacks within its own borders—particularly against locations where both Iraqi and international companies have heavily invested.

"These attacks are unacceptable, undermine Iraq's sovereignty, and hurt Iraq's efforts to attract foreign investment," the statement read. The consulate urged Baghdad to investigate the perpetrators and ensure accountability, warning that the continued failure to act jeopardizes Iraq’s economic future and stability. The rare direct message from Washington underscores growing international concern over Baghdad’s inaction and the erosion of investor confidence in Iraq’s ability to protect strategic assets.

Two Weeks of Escalation: What Happened?

Here is a timeline of the most critical incidents:

• July 15: A drone bomber struck the Sarsang oil field in Duhok, causing a significant explosion and forcing the halt of oil production. HKN Energy, the operator, confirmed the incident and reported that emergency teams were deployed.

• July 14 (night): Two drone bombers attacked the Khurmala oil field in Erbil, damaging the facility’s water pipelines.

• July 14 (morning): A drone was intercepted near Erbil International Airport.

• July 11: A drone bomb was shot down near Peshmerga positions in the Parde front of Kirkuk.

• July 10: A drone was intercepted above the 70th Peshmerga Unit HQ in Sulaimani.

• July 3: A drone crashed close to the U.S. Consulate and Erbil International Airport.

• July 1: A drone bomb exploded in Darkare camp in Zakho, a camp housing displaced persons.

• June 30: Two drones crashed in Tasluja, one near a residential neighborhood and the other near the 70th Peshmerga Unit base. Fire broke out but was quickly contained.

• June 29: A Katyusha missile struck Kirkuk Airport. No casualties were reported.

Despite the damage caused to critical infrastructure, the majority of the attacks have not resulted in fatalities, though they have paralyzed operations and raised anxiety among civilians and investors alike.

Finger-Pointing and Denial
The KRG has directly accused factions within Hashd al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization Forces - PMF), a powerful state-backed militia network, of orchestrating the attacks. On July 5, the KRG Interior Ministry issued an unusually blunt statement blaming "groups belonging to Hashd al-Shaabi" for the destabilizing drone campaign.

In response, the federal government in Baghdad issued a firm denial. Sabah al-Numan, spokesperson for the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, called the KRG’s accusation "unacceptable and baseless." He criticized the KRG for making its claims through the media rather than formal channels, warning that such rhetoric could embolden external threats and fracture national unity.

"The challenges we face require unity and cooperation—not accusations made through the press," al-Numan said.

Yet, the KRG remained defiant. "We feel there is a kind of cover-up and evasion of responsibility," the KRG Interior Ministry said in a follow-up statement, accusing the federal government of failing to release the findings of previous joint investigations into past drone attacks. "No one has been held accountable," it added, citing a repeated pattern of silence and inaction.

A Broader Breakdown of Trust
These drone strikes come amid a worsening budget and oil dispute between Erbil and Baghdad. Baghdad claims the KRG has failed to deliver 400,000 barrels of oil per day to the federal oil marketer SOMO, and that it has not met its obligations to share non-oil revenues. In return, Baghdad has withheld budget transfers, leaving civil servants unpaid for May and June, further fueling public anger.

The ongoing salary crisis has devastated Kurdistan’s local economy. Markets are shrinking, public trust is collapsing, and pressure is mounting on both Kurdish leaders and federal authorities to provide a resolution.

Since the Kurdistan Region began exporting oil independently in 2014, tension over revenue-sharing and authority has led to repeated budget cuts, salary delays, and economic instability in the region.

Adding to the region’s troubles, oil exports from the Kurdistan Region and Kirkuk to Turkey have been suspended since March 25, 2023, following a ruling by the Paris-based International Chamber of Commerce. The court sided with Baghdad, stating that Turkey had violated a bilateral agreement by allowing Kurdish oil exports without federal approval.

As a result, Ankara shut down the pipeline at the Ceyhan port, blocking the Region’s primary export route. This legal and diplomatic setback has deprived both the Kurdistan Region and Iraq of billions in revenue and has worsened the current financial crisis in the Region.

The Kurdistan Region have been suspended official oil exports to foreign countries, yet production continues. Oil is still being transferred abroad via tankers, but the revenues are not being deposited into the Ministry of Finance’s treasury. Opposition parties accuse officials from the ruling parties of oil smuggling, while public frustration grows over the ongoing salary crisis and allegations of corruption.

Security experts have long warned that drones represent a new era of asymmetric warfare in Iraq, particularly in the north where rivalries between Iran-backed militias, Kurdish forces, and international actors create a volatile mix. Yet, despite numerous attacks since 2021, no cohesive federal strategy has been put in place to detect, deter, or punish those responsible.

As the KRG rightly pointed out in its July 5 statement, these are not isolated incidents. Over the past few years, dozens of drone and missile attacks have been carried out—and not a single perpetrator has been named or punished.

Al-Sudani’s silence on the recent incidents is being interpreted as either a calculated political dodge or a sign of helplessness in confronting powerful, Iran-aligned militias. This strategic silence—whether due to fear, complicity, or lack of capability—has allowed these violations to continue, further weakening public confidence in both regional and federal institutions.